So how many 93 cobra's are left out there ?

[POOBLAH]

1. The "Collector" (Less than 10,000 miles total) -> (405 of 4993)
a. Theft .10%
b. "Garage Failure" (Fire.. Tornado...Tree) .20%
c. Flood .10%
d. Accident (VERY RARE) 1%
Est Rate of Decay... 1.40% Linear Per Year Rounded (You cannot have a percentage of a car left after calculations)

The rate of decay might be a little aggressive here, but it gives an idea.

Est Total Count after applying the decay percentage (Around 5 cars per year until you get to more recent years when it drops to around 4)
1993 -> 405
1994 -> 398
1995 -> 392
1996 -> 387
1997 -> 382
1998 -> 377
1999 -> 372
2000 -> 367
2001 -> 362
2002 -> 357
2003 -> 352
2004 -> 347
2005 -> 342
2006 -> 337
2007 -> 332
2008 -> 327
2009 -> 322
2010 -> 317
2011 -> 313
2012 -> 309
2013 -> 305 (Est total left of the 405)

[1993cobra]

i think accident and theft rates are much higher, if understand what your doing?

[dbrennancobra]

This thread has a lot of this going on...

[POOBLAH]

i think accident and theft rates are much higher, if understand what your doing?

Your probably thinking right. I kept those rates a lower on the "Collector Car" because it is not outside nor on the roads as much as say the "Daily Driver"

For a Daily Driver I would venture a guess of maybe 2% Theft rate and 5% Accident rate

I guess lets crunch the numbers some more and see if what comes out looks like it would even make sense.

[POOBLAH]

1. The "Sunday Driver" (Between 10k - 20k total) -> (420 of 4993)
a. Theft .20%
b. "Garage Failure" (Fire.. Tornado...Tree) .20%
c. Flood .10%
d. Accident (RARE) 2%
Est Rate of Decay... 2.50% Linear Per Year Rounded (You cannot have a percentage of a car left after calculations)

The rate of decay might be a little aggressive here, but it gives an idea.

Est Total Count after applying the decay percentage (Around 10 cars per year until you get to more recent years when it drops to around 7)
1993 -> 420
1994 -> 410
1995 -> 400
1996 -> 390
1997 -> 380
1998 -> 371
1999 -> 362
2000 -> 353
2001 -> 344
2002 -> 335
2003 -> 327
2004 -> 319
2005 -> 311
2006 -> 303
2007 -> 295
2008 -> 288
2009 -> 281
2010 -> 274
2011 -> 267
2012 -> 260
2013 -> 254 (Est total left of the 420)

[Romo93]

[POOBLAH]

1. The "Nice Weather Daily Driver" (Between 20k - 65k total) -> (1683 of 4993)
a. Theft .50%
b. "Garage Failure" (Fire.. Tornado...Tree) .20%
c. Flood .10%
d. Accident (RARE) 4%
Est Rate of Decay... 4.80% Linear Per Year Rounded (You cannot have a percentage of a car left after calculations)

Est Total Count after applying the decay percentage (Around 70 cars per year until you get to more recent years when it drops to around 30)
1993 -> 1683
1994 -> 1602
1995 -> 1525
1996 -> 1452
1997 -> 1382
1998 -> 1316
1999 -> 1253
2000 -> 1193
2001 -> 1136
2002 -> 1081
2003 -> 1029
2004 -> 980
2005 -> 933 *Cars start becoming more collectable The rate of decay would start decreasing say from 4.8 to 3.5
2006 -> 900
2007 -> 869
2008 -> 839
2009 -> 810
2010 -> 782
2011 -> 755
2012 -> 729
2013 -> 703 (Est total left of the 1683)

[POOBLAH]

1. The "Daily Driver" (65k +) -> (2485 of 4993)
a. Theft 1%
b. "Garage Failure" (Fire.. Tornado...Tree) .20%
c. Flood .10%
d. Accident (Uncommon) 6%
Est Rate of Decay... 7.30% (You cannot have a percentage of a car left after calculations)

Est Total Count after applying the decay percentage (Around 150 + cars per year until you get to more recent years when it drops to around 30)
1993 -> 2485
1994 -> 2304
1995 -> 2136
1996 -> 1980
1997 -> 1835
1998 -> 1701
1999 -> 1577
2000 -> 1462
2001 -> 1355
2002 -> 1256
2003 -> 1164
2004 -> 1079
2005 -> 1027 *Cars start becoming more collectable The rate of decay would start decreasing say from 7.3 to 4.8
2006 -> 978
2007 -> 931
2008 -> 886
2009 -> 855 *Cars start becoming more collectable The rate of decay would start decreasing say from 4.8 to 3.5
2010 -> 825
2011 -> 796
2012 -> 768
2013 -> 741 (Est total left of the 2485)

[POOBLAH]

Well these all add up to around 2003 of the 4993 being left.

This number seems a little low for what I was personally thinking... What do you all think?

For the daily driver and the nice weather daily driver, I had to compensate for when the Cobras started becoming more collectible and went back to increasing in value.

What year was it when our Cobras started going up instead of going down in value? I was guessing at 2005.

I'm interested in what your input is.

[Mike S.]

You really think that 40% of these things have bit the dust already? I'd have guessed a bit lower - by '93, the first muscle car boom had already hit, and new limited production, high performance cars were looked at differently than before. And Cobras are almost always taken care of better than GTs/LXs, so general survivability should be better.

-MJS

[1993cobra]

i think its there is closer to 3000. also i dont think these cars were treated very well when new . i seen one about 6 months old back seat removed replaced with speakers and a beer keg. guy lived on a gravel road and it was always covered in mud, id say 75 % were daily driven with the highest casualty rate going to thefts, then accidents, i went to insurance auctions since 1994 and cant remember how many thefts ive seen, several of those burned. How many clones have we all seen with "real cobra body kits"? where do you think all those real cobra parts came from? ask aaron how many salvaged cars he has seen , along with MPS . so yeah im going with 3k

[POOBLAH]

Yea.. 2k is too low.

Does anyone know what percentage of early Shelbys are still around? We could use that as a litmus value. (In other words our percentage should be higher then that.)

[SPEEDFREEK]

I'd say in the 3k range.

[JohnLynch]

I agree @ 3k left meaning from ragged out to showroom new. Nice statistics pooh. If we can get to 1,500 cars in the registry im sure we will have a better estimate.

[Z282SLO]

Nice numbers crunching, Pooh. Very interesting.

My 2 cents ... (after many hours of careful analysis and a beer or two) 3472 left.